Technology transfer is a guessing game. The foundation of the entire process is built on a set of assumptions in the form of a value proposition and a business model that proposes product-market fit. From this perspective, the essence of the transfer game consists of revealing and validating the most critical assumptions to make the proposal a reality.
Acknowledging that the starting point for the transfer is not a true statement but rather a well-defined working hypothesis that requires validation is crucial for success. In essence, this is because it is easier to pivot from explicit hypotheses than ingrained statements, and hypotheses foster a self-critical and open approach to new learning opportunities and feedback.
Interestingly, the importance of creating and validating assumptions or hypotheses in the technology transfer process mirrors the scientific discovery method.
Physicist Richard Feynman said that the first step to discovering a new physical law is to assume it. As he explained, once the assumption is explicit, its physical implications are calculated and compared with reality. If the consequences are at odds with reality, the hypothesis is discarded – regardless of its beauty or who proposed it. If our assumption contradicts reality, a new assumption must be created. This principle, highly esteemed among researchers, lies at the core of technology transfer too.
The business model canvas is a great example of the role that assumptions play in technology transfer. Initially, the canvas is populated with a web of assumptions regarding consumers, distribution channels, operating costs and strategic partners. It is important to note the canvas is mostly populated with assumptions, not facts. Bringing these hypotheses to the surface and clearly defining them can be challenging, and some academics struggle to generate these types of assumptions.
However, the effort invested in articulating precise and distinct assumptions pays off because it makes their validation more feasible and valuable. In fact, the central value of assumptions is that they trigger a call to action and push people towards validation experiments to confirm or discard them. Recognizing the assumptions in our models is not enough, they need to be regularly updated and validated.
To scrutinize and refine these assumptions, entrepreneurs must step outside their comfort zone and engage with potential customers, partners and competitors. The laboratory does not hold the answers to market questions. During the validation journey, emotions are bound to run high. The technology may fall short of meeting customer requirements, or the problem that it addresses does not exist. Customers may already be happy with existing solutions, or the market size may be smaller than expected.
Receiving feedback that points out mistakes and dismantles our proposal can be confusing, discouraging and exhausting. Nevertheless, the opportunity cost of ignoring such real-world feedback is too big to ignore. Actively listening with a radical open mind, minimizing biases, and avoiding self-deception is critical.
The secret to our success may lie in our ability to recognize and successfully incorporate unexpected learnings, which, if left unheard, could lead to substantial time and money costs, or project failure.
The journey of validating technology transfer assumptions is akin to a rollercoaster ride. Scientific entrepreneurs must stay open to the possibility of quick pivots. What may seem like an ideal application for the new technology and a solid anchor point today, can quickly turn into a dead end. Entrepreneurs dive into every opportunity with everything they have at each iteration to execute killer experiments and validations. However, if technical or market findings do not support that direction, a pivot becomes necessary. Unavoidably, finding a product-market fit for new technologies is marked by numerous ups and downs.
In this context, the relevance of technology transfer launchpads in research centres and universities becomes evident. These launchpads provide a platform for innovative teams and technologies to undergo several iterations and validations. They allow failures and restarts, providing the flexibility to pivot and make course corrections. While such failures might spell the end for real companies, incubation frameworks offer second and third chances for the most determined entrepreneurs.
Assumptions are a potent tool to steer technology transfer endeavours toward success in dynamic and uncertain environments. They allow boldly exploring what-if questions by providing a structured approach that can fuel progress and learning. Using the right processes for creating and validating assumptions can be a direct catalyst to develop and implement innovations encouraging creative thinking and inspiring entrepreneurs to contemplate unconventional possibilities and approaches.
In the highly uncertain environments that characterize some technological innovations, assumptions can also contribute to a robust risk mitigation strategy offering contingency planning and swift adaptations when lead assumptions do not align with reality.